An Old Drug Tackles New Tricks: Ivermectin Treatment in Three Brazilian Towns

Sep 16, 2020 | Brazil, COVID-19, Ivermectin, News, Popular Posts

An Old Drug Tackles New Tricks Ivermectin Treatment in Three Brazilian Towns

TrialSite News continues to develop a global network of individuals, from all walks of life, participating and sharing their experiences from around the world. They share a common bond: a dedication to health, community well-being and research, from randomized controlled trials to real world observations, contributing important observations related to COVID-19. Alan Cannell is one of these individuals. Originally from the UK, but based in the southern part of Brazil for many years, Mr. Cannell, an engineer by training who has participated in major projects around the world, shares his research observations as to the use of Ivermectin in Brazil. As TrialSite recently discussed, some municipal health departments in Brazil have approved Ivermectin-based regimens targeting COVID-19. This is a similar pattern to observations in some other parts of South America. 

The Introduction

We were caught by the COVID outbreak in Paris. Despite the rumors coming out of Italy, the situation in France didn’t look so bad and, on Friday March 9, the bars and restaurants were full. On Monday, the city went into full lockdown. After three weeks and a series of cancelled flights, we arrived back in Brazil only to be greeted by another COVID lockdown.

I knew from experience that Vitamin D boosts the immune system and that zinc reduces the effects of common cold coronaviruses, so we stocked up on supplements. Then in June, word got out about ivermectin and it seemed to worth looking into. I was struck by the very low COVID rates in some East African countries where large scale distribution of ivermectin every 6 months is carried out to control River Blindness and other parasites, such as Ethiopia and Mozambique and having worked as an engineer in Maputo in Mozambique, I know that the ties between this region and South Africa are very strong (Johannesburg is only about a 500 km drive away), yet their COVID levels were far lower than in South Africa. After seeing videos of a Brazilian doctor, Dr Lucy Kerr, on the use of ivermectin for both the treatment and prevention of COVID, we started taking this in early July according to the preventive protocol she recommended (with no side effects) and following how this new use for an old drug behaved. 

A Tale of Three Cities

In mid-July the Mayor of the port city of Itajaí (Santa Catarina State – SC), in the more ethnically European South, started offering ‘prevention kits’ with ivermectin to the entire population (about 200.000) and some 120.000 people took up this offer. The Mayor (a qualified doctor) authorized this treatment through the Municipal Health Service, however, public attorneys and the medical establishment were extremely critical as there were no ‘complete medical trials’ to justify the expense of this use of ivermectin (Brazil is a tropical country with plenty of nasty parasites of its own, so ivermectin is approved by ANVISA – the Federal drug control agency – and was sold over-the-counter). Other nearby  municipalities adhered to this plan, as did the State Capital (Florianopolis), parts of the Capital’s Metropolitan Area and several industries, making this initiative partly state-wide along the coast. 

ANVISA promptly restricted sales and limited its use to parasite control, a move questioned by the city of Natal, Capital of the Rio Grande do Norte State – RN, with a population of about 1 million and which had given instructions to treat initial COVID symptoms with ivermectin in early June, as well as a preventive measure for Municipal Health staff. Again, this was questioned by the medical establishment with a petition signed by over 200 doctors requesting a change in policy. However, the State Regional Medical Board claimed that the law covering State Medical Boards (No. 3.268/1957, Article 15) allowed this protocol and that States and Municipalities had been given the right to determine treatments by a recent Supreme Court decision. On June 30 the Mayor then announced the distribution of a million doses of ivermectin to the population via the Municipal Health Services. At this point the topic had become politicized with groups pro (such as the Municipal COVID Response Science Committee) and against (Federal University and State Public Action Committee). The Municipal body then relaxed lockdown rules and recommended the reopening of schools. In late July, the second largest town in the State, Mossoró also opted to distribute ‘kits’ with vitamin D and ivermectin to the low-income population. Local drug stores mentioned that there was a run on private stocks of ivermectin so a large (but unknown) percentage of the largely mixed race population received one dose by the end of July.

Meanwhile, on the left bank of the Amazon River, the COVID-19 Medical Committee of the State of Amapá opted in May to treat patients with a combination of the drugs Azithromycin and Ivermectin, which had been tested on the team’s doctor, her relatives and a group of 40 patients – all with positive results. The Committee stressed that this is not a protocol for the entire population, but a preventive mechanism for those who are at risk or have had contact with a possible carrier. The results seemed promising, yet the reaction of the establishment was stunningly negative. As an example, a specialist from the Brazilian Society of Infectology claimed during a video conference hosted by a well-known journalist that: “personal experiences are a horror show in terms of evidence, there may be other factors such as the intensity of the virus or that it didn’t affect vulnerable groups”. All Brazilians know that the ethnic background of Amapá is partly black and largely Native American, groups that are known to be vulnerable. Also, the upstream State of Amazonas was hit extremely hard in April, as was Pará State on the right bank of the Amazon, both suffering high death rates and a critical lack of Intensive Care Units, thus putting the population of Amapá at high risk.  

The Results

The question of how to interpret the results of these experiences is complicated. ‘Evidence’ is only considered valid for full orthodox medical trials (double blind, placebo, phasing, etc.) and this is perfectly understandable for any new drug or treatment. However, in areas such as traffic safety (a major cause of trauma in public health) it’s not possible, for example, to test the use of child-seats with an orthodox medical protocol. An engineering approach is used: data is analyzed, tests with dummies are carried out and legislation enacted. Follow-up analysis then shows if the predicted benefits took place.   

These Brazilian experiences are thus interesting test cases from this engineering point-of-view. The three cities are in different regions with vastly different demographics and ethnicity and similar sized towns in the same areas can be used as ‘controls’. State-wide impacts can also be compared with data from neighboring states. 

So what was the impact of ivermectin on the number, severity and spread of COVID cases? The first table shows the drop in ‘average deaths for the last 7 days’ as compared to the same indicator 14 days earlier for 9 States. The data is for September 14 from the official government site and the national press consortium (a), which gathers all municipal and state data. Thus the second week of September is compared to the third week in August. As ivermectin was mostly administered during July and the average period for intensive care is around 19 days or two to three weeks (Mato Grosso do Sul Health Service), if this preventive treatment in had any impact on mortality rates, this should start to become apparent after about the third week in August. 

Region State Change in average deaths (%) previous week  compared to 2 weeks ago (a) Total COVID related deaths Deaths/ 100k
South Santa Catarina -36 2529 35,6
  Paraná -3 3823 35,3
  Rio Grande do Sul -54055 33,4
North Amapá  -75678 80,2
  Amazonas -42 389293,9
  Pará 13 6344 73,7
North East Rio Grande do Norte -652315 66
  Ceará 62 8666 95,1
  Paraíba -30 2627 65,4

Each region has similar levels of COVID related deaths/100 k of population. Death rates were higher among populations in the North and in Ceará; however, the three states with major cities that adopted an ivermectin protocol show a much greater drop.   

The second table shows the new confirmed cases per month for the three towns, along with data from similar towns in the same regions that did not adopt the ivermectin protocols. Chapecó is in the West of Santa Catarina, Ananindeua is a suburb of Belém on the other side of the Amazon and João Pessoa is the Capital of Paraíba State 150 km to the South of Natal.  The data is from the Consortium (14/9) and population estimates for 2020 are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography – IBGE. 

Region Confirmed New Cases /month June July August Population 2020 (1000) % August/Av June July
South Itajaí 2123 2854 998 223 40%
  Chapecó  1760 1754 1405 224 80%
North Macapá 7966 2481 2370 503 45%
  Ananindeua 1520 1521 1014 535 67%
North East Natal 9009 7554 1590 890 19%
  João Pessoa 9437 7963 5384 817 62%

The last column shows the percentage of cases in August in relation to the averages of June and July. August was different in all three towns with an ivermectin protocol, the numbers for the three test case towns show that new cases in August were only 31% of the average value for June and July, while in the control towns this percentage was 70%. These numbers strongly suggest that for all three towns severity (COVID related deaths) was reduced and a much lower level of new cases were confirmed  (generally after reported symptoms). The data does not indicate if the spread of the virus fell, as more cases may have been asymptomatic and many towns are now gaining ‘herd immunity’.  

Total population size is about 1500 k for both the test and control groups with a total number of cases of about 32 k. For a transport survey this would imply a 95% Confidence Level in the results. Of course, this is not the case for medical research, but if any measure caused a similar rapid reduction in say, child traffic accident trauma, it would certainly catch the attention of the scientific community and public opinion.

Podcast Forthcoming

The author of this article, Alan Cannell, will share his experiences as a resident in Southern Brazil on a forthcoming podcast. Learn more about why municipal health agencies in Brazil started to make Ivermectin available in that country.  

10 Comments

  1. GIORDANO MOCHEL NETTO

    City of Porto Feliz – SP, Prophylatic use of ivermectin: 98.7% of cured people, 0.7% death rate. Take a look there.

  2. John Hainaut

    I’m not seeing the correlation between the observations in text and the charts.

    First chart observation by author:

    “however, the three states with major cities that adopted an ivermectin protocol (shaded) show a much greater drop.” Some of the shaded states show increases. I don’t see the basis for this observation.

    Comment: Are not the greatest % drops Amapa, Amazonas and Rio Grande do Norte? Also, there are 4 shaded lines not three. I’m not sure if the shading is correct or somehow in error.

    Second Chart Observation by Author:

    “the numbers for the three test case towns show that new cases in August were only 31% of the average value for June and July, while in the control towns this percentage was 70%”

    Comment: Again, I don’t see how the numbers on the chart bear this out. The “shaded” towns have higher August % vs. Average of June/July which is quite the opposite of the observation. Something wrong with the Chart?

    • alan cannell

      the charts were incorrect (problems with software), the new version as of today gives the correct numbers.

  3. ARUN KUMAR LAHA

    Is there any clinical trials to prove or disprove the efficacy of Bromhexine against COVID19?

  4. ML

    The evidence for benefit for ivermectin is mounting by the day, worldwide.
    But notice how often medical authorities, health structures and entities embedded within certain governmental agencies often halt, dissuade, dismiss, and express disdain for low cost, effective, EARLY treatment regimens. I think we all need to ask ourselves, “Why?” Then we need to act in whatever ways we can to get the message out about ivermectin to as many people within our purview as we possibly can. Let it spread “virally!” Lessened morbidity and mortality will be the result of our efforts.

  5. Robert Wall

    The towns of Itajai in Santa Catalina, Natal (the capital of Rio Grand de Norte) and town of Mossano and the state of Amapa received Ivermectin; and I agree with John H’s comment the shading is not correct. It appears to me the Santa Catalina entry on line 1 should be shaded in Table 1 instead of Parana; and the Rio Grande de Norte should be shaded In Table 1, instead of Ceara.

    Regarding Table 2, the shading appears to be correct if the shaded areas are the areas that did not implement wide use of Ivermectin

    • alan cannell

      the charts were incorrect (problems with software), the new version as of today gives the correct numbers.

    • Weldon wilson

      I have personally taken ivermectin and note so many improvements in my 77 year old body, among which is neauropathy actually disappearing along with skin eruptions. To hell with the medical morons. They in their greed and love of money and prestige can remain in their stupidity!!!

  6. asley simon

    shortness of breath, dry cough, low energy, fatigue, chest tightness and others gradually disappeared. Visit Akanni herbs foundation official web page akanniherbalcentre com Their COPD treatment has improved the quality of my life greatly, i breath much better and feel comfortable doing so!

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